Back from a much-anticipated, yet brief, sojourn to the beach. After washing the remains of the salty water from my hair and clothes, I am left with a few grains of sand in my wallet that will likely follow me around for years and a few thoughts on taxes and government.

In light of the recent announcements from presidential candidates, the upcoming election seems more imminent than before. We all seem to agree that something must be done about The Deficit, but the conflict of course arises when we try to argue our views on how The Deficit should best be handled.

We could cut spending, but that could just lead to slower economic growth, which means The Deficit would not dissipate as quickly as proponents of spending cuts think. We could raise taxes, but again, critics point out the same flaws in removing spending from the economy. We could continue to have low taxes and spend, in the hopes that A Strong Economy will come and save the day. Incidentally, that last point is the easiest decision to make in the face of pressures from individual interests of course - none of whom want to pay higher taxes or have spending on their favorite government programs cut.

Personally, I don’t have much faith in economists, and I think that no matter which route we go, if it’s wrong we’ll look back at it in 50 years and say “Of course, doing so-and-so absolutely ruined the economy, which was eventually saved by some-random-event-not-controlled-by-politicians.” The economy is this art-and-science-being that we have inadvertently created, and can affect, but we’re not quite sure how, nor can we say with certainty which actions caused which results. A war pulled the U.S. out of the Great Depression, but being involved in a war today is more of a hindrance than a help to the economy in the Great Recession.

I suppose my point is, the economy is a very big, complex, and powerful thing. Just because your professor or some economist on the news seems sure that x will lead to y, take it with a grain of salt. Economic models are not perfect predictors of the future and any model is only as accurate as the assumptions that it is based on. One man, even if he is president of the United States, did not cause this recession singlehandedly, and it is unlikely that one man will pull us out of it.

For more deep musings, I suggest reading this interpretation of the game of tag.